While President Clinton was delivering a speech
on the strength of the
economy, the stock market plunged over 500 points.
Must have been because we all knew he didn't inhale, and never told a lie. (What politician does not, at some point, "anticipate the future"? It is only a lie if the future does not anticipate the politician.)
Actually, we all knew it was coming, and have known if for several years. Too much money has been invested in the mutual funds, with too much belief that it will continue growing forever, that we can all become rich by investing, rather than by working. Sure, some slowdown in RATE of growth growth is to be expected! But not a major crash.
Several of our industries showed less than expected returns, and Asia suddenly realized that smoke and mirrors is not what Economic Growth is all about.
It is not that "nothing lasts forever", it is that change is constant. If you are making a fortune selling concrete to build The Empire State Building, what happens when it is built? Are you wise enough to be ready to sell the inordinate wave of doors, door knobs, and windows that will be needed to make that skyscraper usable? Will you then have the foresight to sell the wave of lamps, desks, chairs and other office furniture that is going to have to be deployed to make that building work? Are you in Business, or are you in The Concrete Business?
So, overblown expectations have hit the limits in the rate of rational growth, and encountered the beginnings of natural phase changes. And with that, the less imaginative people are perched on the edge, teetering on the brink of turning into overblown pessimism. Shall we join them, or help them see the light?
Yes, there may well be some minor drops of blood in the streets as many ventures which were not well grounded fall to reality. This always happens, in bad economies and good economies. But in bad economies, instead of looking to the future, people look at the failures as harbinger of future woes, and fear risking new ventures. Even during the horrendous recession in California, when the state was issuing IOU's instead of pay checks, the rate of corporate failures did not substantially rise -- what fell, was the rate of formation of NEW corporations. Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt, the so-called "FUD" factor, not reality, drove a large part of that recession.
Are you going to let your friends and clients feel that fear? Or are you going to go out there and help them move beyond the fear and prepare for The Future?
What I see a ground swell of attempts to save money, while some of the brightest try to re-gain economic growth. Well, my dear friends, The World Wide Web stands waiting to deliver the greatest means of economic savings by eliminating the energy costs of moving things and people, and housing people where unnecessary. Think about it. From the Tech Pubs department to the order processing, from accounting departments to engineering design departments; how much of that work actually requires people to show up in one place?
What we are seeing, is the resurrection of the virtual corporation. I am reminded of how J.P. Getty ran his company -- lean beyond belief. Even after he was a millionaire, he still drove out to the oil fields, signed contracts on the hood of his pickup truck, and made his business work. Rather than waiting for the oil wildcaters to come to a plush office rented in the center of town, he went out to the wildcatters and clinched deals long before those in town heard of the oil strikes that made him rich. He owned very little of the chain between oil producer and gas pump, working deals leasing, buying, and selling so as to get the most bang for the buck in a volatile high risk industry. Today, we seem to be re-discovering some of those ideas.
Tom Peters, in his book Tom Perers Seminar, said a fundamental economic unit is the guy with a telephone, a fax machine, and an "oven" (a machine or method that produces something of value). He has to tell the world he exists, accept orders and deliver his product. He has to take responsibility for his own economic endeavor. Whether the unit is a man at a desk in a large corporation, or a pizza dealer, the principles are much the same.
Is not that what we Web Based Consultants are? Is not that what our clients are? Well, ask your clients these questions:
Do you want your store open round the clock? Would you like store fronts in nearly every city in the civilized world? That's the World Wide Web!
Do you want to save air fare for those meetings between engineers and others across the divisions? Put the information up on internal web servers! Intranets and extranets!
Do you want to cut down on your office heating and cooling costs, and cut rental costs as well? Do you want to avoid all the hassle traffic jams cause when there is an accident in the main arteries of your region and a half hour commute turns in to a three hour traffic jam? Let your workers tele-commute via The Internet and the World Wide Web! They'll be at work sooner, and a lot fresher than after a long commute!
Do you really want to get in your car and schlepp over to the shopping plaza in the rain/snow/sleet/heat to buy a few things? No? So use the World Wide Web!
All we Americans have to do, is use some imagination to sell the fantastic cost savings that come from using the internet instead of moving iron and bodies back and forth over and over again. The savings to this economy, and to our personal lives, will be Immense! How many man years are wasted in the automobile every day? How many millions of dollars go up in smoke from the collective tail pipes of America each and every day?
What will arise from the light dusting of ashes of the stock market, is a new world wide electronic economy. And if you are not already sitting there, NOW IS THE TIME!!!